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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving together. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still